Thursday, March 08, 2007

WHERE IS HU JINTAO TAKING CHINA?

Where is Hu Jintao taking China?
By Jill McGivering BBC World Service.

The National People's Congress marked five years of Mr Hu. Now that China's president Hu Jintao has been in office for five years, what kind of president is he turning out to be?
When Mr Hu became China's president he was almost unknown - especially outside of China.
A key task in his first term, therefore, was to build support.
"He has established his credentials with the military, which is a body that he didn't have any particular ties to previously," according to Adam Ward of the International Institute of Strategic Studies.
"He has demonstrated a fairly firm hand on the economic tiller, and he has also demonstrated that he can handle diplomatic issues. On the whole he has handled diplomacy with extreme confidence," he said.
Quality of growth
Elizabeth Economy, director of Asia Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations in Washington, is less complimentary, saying that "at best, we rank him with a B - somewhere between B minus to B plus depending on the particular issue."
In particular, she says Mr Hu's record on social issues has been disappointing.

Jiang Zemin's moves towards openness have been halted. He came into office promising to address China's yawning wealth gap - an ideology that marked a distinct change from his predecessor, Jiang Zemin.
"Under Jiang Zemin, I think there was an acceptance that economic growth was the priority - and that if economic growth led to inequality within society, that was simply something that had to be tolerated," says Mr Ward.
"With Hu Jintao, he has come to see that such a breakneck approach to economic growth carries many risks - the risks of disgruntlement in the interior areas of China that do not benefit from growth; the risk that the economy is insufficiently regulated. So I think that the focus is the quality of growth, rather than the quantity."
There is no doubt that President Hu has made "harmonious development" his catchphrase.
But Elizabeth Economy believes he has not made the "bold steps" needed - not only to make the economy more transparent and much better regulated, but also to incorporate the rule of law and an independent judiciary.
"If he remains unwilling to take much bolder steps we're not going to see any progress," she says.
Paradox
And there is one criticism from the West that no Chinese politician can ignore - the country's human rights record.
Indeed, only last year President Hu's visit to Washington was interrupted by the cries of protesters.

China's wealth gap has been a source of concern for Mr HuBrad Adams, Asia Director of Human Rights Watch, says that in comparison to five years ago, China is a more open society.
"The Chinese, in their daily lives, have more personal freedom, more access to information, they even have more access to the internet, as censored as it is.
"Compared to two years ago however, when a high-level political decision was made by the president to crack down on activism, things are a lot tighter."
The paradox is that at the same time more space is being made for general protest, the ruling Communist Party draws a firm line against anything that might challenge it.
But Mr Adams explained that for many Chinese, this seems a fair deal.
"You can see the 84,000 public protests, the bloggers, the chatrooms - they are full of criticism of the government," he said.
"But if anyone crosses the line and complains about the Communist Party's rule, they can see the inside of a jail cell pretty quickly.
"But there is a strong sense that most people in China feel that the system is starting to produce things for them."
Disquiet
However, many - in particular in the West - are disappointed that the grass-roots programme of democracy pioneered by Jiang Zemin has ground to a halt.
Hu Jintao seems to believe fundamentally in protecting the Party.
"He thinks the solution, certainly in the medium term, is a massive infusion of bureaucratic competence," says Adam Ward.
"This allows the Party and the state to do its job more efficiently, with a greater sense of the importance of the rule by law."
On the world stage, President Hu has tried to project a benign image. He has succeeded in avoiding policy disasters, and kept China's complicated relationship with Washington on track.
His message throughout has been that China's expansion needed not be a cause for alarm.
But as the influence grows, so does the disquiet.
"As China has engaged more deeply, particularly in the economic realm, they have not done things differently from previous great powers," says Elizabeth Economy.
"They are exploiting the natural resources of other countries. Chinese multinationals have a very poor record on the environment and safety."
So what is emerging about Hu? He certainly is not a new style of Chinese leader, as some had hoped.
He is a technocrat, and a slow, careful decision-maker.
But perhaps this is exactly the sort of leader China needs at this moment of dramatic economic and social change.

BBC NEWS REPORT.

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