IS BIRD FLU STILL A THREAT?
Is bird flu still a threat?
By Tom Geoghegan BBC News Magazine.
A year ago, a dead swan in Scotland became the first wild bird in the UK to be found with the deadly H5N1 virus. The discovery sparked a wave of fear about bird flu, but 12 months on it seems to have been forgotten.
Even before the dead swan was discovered in Cellardyke last year, bird flu was sending a collective shiver down the nation's spine. With the wild bird migratory season in full flight, the chief fear in much of the media was that a bird carrying the virus might land on British shores.
Then it happened. On 5 April, the Cellardyke swan tested positive for H5N1 and the alarm bells rang even louder. A prediction that if the virus mutated sufficiently, a human pandemic could claim tens of thousands of British lives sparked a rush for masks and survival kits. The term "bird flu" earned 417 mentions in the British press in March 2006.
Fast-forward 12 months and the story count falls to just 79 in March 2007. And, so far, the migration season appears to have brought no new outbreaks to these shores - the Bernard Matthews incident in February seems to have been from an imported source.
Even before the dead swan was discovered in Cellardyke last year, bird flu was sending a collective shiver down the nation's spine. With the wild bird migratory season in full flight, the chief fear in much of the media was that a bird carrying the virus might land on British shores.
Then it happened. On 5 April, the Cellardyke swan tested positive for H5N1 and the alarm bells rang even louder. A prediction that if the virus mutated sufficiently, a human pandemic could claim tens of thousands of British lives sparked a rush for masks and survival kits. The term "bird flu" earned 417 mentions in the British press in March 2006.
Fast-forward 12 months and the story count falls to just 79 in March 2007. And, so far, the migration season appears to have brought no new outbreaks to these shores - the Bernard Matthews incident in February seems to have been from an imported source.
HOW IT UNFOLDED IN 2006
March 22: Worldwide bird-flu death toll hits 103
April 5: Bird flu confirmed in dead swan in Fife
April 7: Panic-killing plea issued by poultry farmers
April 16: People rush to buy bird flu protection kits
April 27: Over 35,000 chickens killed in Norfolk after dead bird tests positive for H7
April 28: H7 strain of bird flu confirmed in farm worker
September 10: Fish sales rocket in the UK
Dec 31: Worldwide deaths for 2006 stand at 73, more than any previous year.
The Food Standards Agency found no reason to prosecute the Bernard Matthews plant, it said on Monday, although the government report is due after Easter.
Defra has tested the wild bird population throughout the season and says it has not found any trace of the virus.
But the threat has not diminished, says Dr Alan Hay, head of the World Influenza Centre at the National Institute for Medical Research, because poultry and humans around the world are still getting infected. It is just that events have been less dramatic in Europe.
"This year people commented that weather has been warmer so the migration patterns haven't been repeated and that may be one reason we haven't seen a resurgence of cases among wild birds," he says.
"The winter in the northern hemisphere is just coming to an end so we seem to be past the worst potential time for these outbreaks.
"But we shouldn't be reassured by that because we've seen a resurgence in Japan and Vietnam so we don't know when the whole thing might blow up again."
Some farmers have played down the risk.
The longer H5N1 remains with us without gaining any foothold in the human population, the more sceptical people will become, he says.
But if it's not H5N1 that mutates into a form passed easily between humans, it will be another strain, says virologist Professor John Oxford.
"It's inevitable that one or other of the mutations will [pass easily between humans] and H5 looks the favourite candidate. Some are saying H5 has been around for 10 years and never will but I don't believe that."
'No over-reaction'
The human pandemic is very unlikely to start in the UK, where only 100,000 people have close contact with poultry, says Prof Oxford, it will probably start in South-East Asia.
He believes media coverage in the UK has been spot-on, because it made people vigilant enough to report dead birds rather than handle them. And 400 million chickens have not been slaughtered worldwide in vain.
So far, the problem has been one for poultry only in the UK.
"I don't think there was an over-reaction or media hysteria. Over the year there was more coverage on Mr Blunkett's mistress than H5N1. People started thinking it because science and medicine are so rarely on the front page and for a couple of days they were. I'm not apologetic for increasing people's knowledge."
The UK is ranked third in the world in terms of preparedness for a human pandemic, he says, and the big difference to 12 months ago is that the vaccines being stockpiled look like they work.
But significant numbers of people believe the threat was exaggerated last year.
We risk a dangerous accumulation of national panics-Matthew Parris.
Defra has tested the wild bird population throughout the season and says it has not found any trace of the virus.
But the threat has not diminished, says Dr Alan Hay, head of the World Influenza Centre at the National Institute for Medical Research, because poultry and humans around the world are still getting infected. It is just that events have been less dramatic in Europe.
"This year people commented that weather has been warmer so the migration patterns haven't been repeated and that may be one reason we haven't seen a resurgence of cases among wild birds," he says.
"The winter in the northern hemisphere is just coming to an end so we seem to be past the worst potential time for these outbreaks.
"But we shouldn't be reassured by that because we've seen a resurgence in Japan and Vietnam so we don't know when the whole thing might blow up again."
Some farmers have played down the risk.
The longer H5N1 remains with us without gaining any foothold in the human population, the more sceptical people will become, he says.
But if it's not H5N1 that mutates into a form passed easily between humans, it will be another strain, says virologist Professor John Oxford.
"It's inevitable that one or other of the mutations will [pass easily between humans] and H5 looks the favourite candidate. Some are saying H5 has been around for 10 years and never will but I don't believe that."
'No over-reaction'
The human pandemic is very unlikely to start in the UK, where only 100,000 people have close contact with poultry, says Prof Oxford, it will probably start in South-East Asia.
He believes media coverage in the UK has been spot-on, because it made people vigilant enough to report dead birds rather than handle them. And 400 million chickens have not been slaughtered worldwide in vain.
So far, the problem has been one for poultry only in the UK.
"I don't think there was an over-reaction or media hysteria. Over the year there was more coverage on Mr Blunkett's mistress than H5N1. People started thinking it because science and medicine are so rarely on the front page and for a couple of days they were. I'm not apologetic for increasing people's knowledge."
The UK is ranked third in the world in terms of preparedness for a human pandemic, he says, and the big difference to 12 months ago is that the vaccines being stockpiled look like they work.
But significant numbers of people believe the threat was exaggerated last year.
We risk a dangerous accumulation of national panics-Matthew Parris.
Matthew Parris, writing in the Times, says if the pandemic is not coming then an "end bird flu" notice should be posted by the media, as it should on other issues such as anthrax, ricin and binge-drinking.
"Otherwise, with warnings posted only as we enter new alarms, but no 'panic over' signs to end them, we risk a dangerous accumulation of national panics, leading to the ultimate panic: fear of panic fatigue, and lethal complacency. A nation has only so much panic to expend."
Bird flu is the kind of story that editors capitalise on, says media commentator Vince Graff.
"There's a widespread feeling among Fleet Street editors that readers like to be scared and it seems to work. Some papers do well out of telling people that it's a frightening world out there."
'Crying wolf'
But Ben Goldacre, who writes a column in the Guardian about the media's misrepresentation of science, says nothing has been exaggerated on bird flu and if anything, the public has not been worried enough. Their scepticism is due to the virus's unpredictable risk.
"People want a numerical risk, they want a percentage probability about there being a bird flu epidemic, but there's no way of knowing with this."
A public distrust in science has grown, he says, because the media in the past has "cried wolf" over unfounded health scares such as MMR.
And as the pace of new medical knowledge has slowed since 1970, the media turns minor or illusory threats into a full-scale panic.
"Otherwise, with warnings posted only as we enter new alarms, but no 'panic over' signs to end them, we risk a dangerous accumulation of national panics, leading to the ultimate panic: fear of panic fatigue, and lethal complacency. A nation has only so much panic to expend."
Bird flu is the kind of story that editors capitalise on, says media commentator Vince Graff.
"There's a widespread feeling among Fleet Street editors that readers like to be scared and it seems to work. Some papers do well out of telling people that it's a frightening world out there."
'Crying wolf'
But Ben Goldacre, who writes a column in the Guardian about the media's misrepresentation of science, says nothing has been exaggerated on bird flu and if anything, the public has not been worried enough. Their scepticism is due to the virus's unpredictable risk.
"People want a numerical risk, they want a percentage probability about there being a bird flu epidemic, but there's no way of knowing with this."
A public distrust in science has grown, he says, because the media in the past has "cried wolf" over unfounded health scares such as MMR.
And as the pace of new medical knowledge has slowed since 1970, the media turns minor or illusory threats into a full-scale panic.
BBC NEWS REPORT.
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