LETTER FROM THE DIASPORA !

Friday 3rd August 2007

Dear Friends,

Here in the UK, summer has at last put in an appearance. Sunshine and blue skies make even exile seem bearable.

I was walking along in the sunshine last Saturday when I met two British friends of mine also out enjoying the long overdue summer. 'So when is there going to be a military coup?' they asked when we got to talking about Zim - as we always do! They are both educated, well-informed people and they're familiar with the spate of military coups that have occurred in West Africa over the years. Naturally enough they assume that something like that will happen in Zim. The textbooks, after all, tell you that coups occur when the military dislike the way the country is being governed and decide they could do a better job. Well, let's face it, anyone could do a better job than this lot in Zimbabwe with their insane economic policies, their flip-flops and the right hand not knowing what the left hand's doing! So, naturally, one would expect some sort of reaction from the military to the rank incompetence of the Mugabe regime. Instead, despite rumours and counter-rumours the Zimbabwean military remain firmly in their barracks – except of course when they come out to beat innocent civilians senseless or to intimidate the voters at election time.

As I walked away from my friends, I thought about their question and when I got home I took down Ali Mazrui's book, Nationalism and the New States in Africa. My copy of the work is well out of date now but there is a Table at the front of the book which shows Africa's post-independence history. Mazrui lists all the African countries from Algeria to Zimbabwe, names their capitals, languages and population figures and even has a separate column dedicated to military coups. Between 1963 and 1982 by my rough count there were fifty-five overthrows of civilian government by the military in Africa; Ghana for instance, has had five coups, the last being in 1981 and Nigeria has had at least three.

Since military coups are generally followed by periods of intense repression and violent upheaval, I suppose we should be grateful that Zimbabwe has escaped the military coup and for twenty-seven years has been ruled by one man, one party. The truth, however, is that Zimbabwe has in effect already had a coup, a bloodless coup perhaps but certainly the military have taken over the management of Zimbabwe plc – everything from the running of elections to the provision of food and fuel. And it has all been carefully and deliberately put in place by none other than the wily President Mugabe himself. Take a look at every parastatal in the country and you will find a former military man heading the organization. The military are already virtually in charge of everything. Robert Mugabe has made absolutely sure of that through his system of patronage and giving top jobs only to military men. It keeps the generals sweet and it keeps Mugabe in power. The army – at least not its upper ranks – has no need to mount a coup; the top brass are not going to risk losing their immense wealth and influence for the sake of the country and its people.

And it's that failure to put the country first that is the key issue I believe in Zimbabwe's current situation. While the country waits –and has waited for the last ten years – for some outside power to come to the rescue, the suffering of the people has gone on unabated. No one, not the President, not the ruling party, not the military and I'm sorry to say not even the opposition parties are prepared to put the country first before their own greedy self-interest. And while they all argue and criticise and carp at one another, their Zimbabwean brothers and sisters – and most tragically the children - die of hunger, of exhaustion and heartbreak as the House of Stone collapses around them.

So, it was like a reviving breath of hope this week to read, Kofi Annan's words as he delivered the fifth annual Nelson Mandela lecture. Yes, he could have said those things while he was still Secretary General of the UN but let's not carp about that. The fact that he spoke so openly - and in South Africa too- of the Zimbabwean situation as 'intolerable and unsustainable' should give Zimbabweans some cause for renewed hope, a tiny flicker of light at the end of that endless tunnel. What Annan did was to articulate what so many of us have been thinking for a long time. Africa's failure to condemn bad governance and human rights abuses is in Kofi Annan's words ' a pernicious self-destructive form of racism that unites citizens to rise up and expel tyrannical rulers who are white but to excuse tyrannical rulers who are black… African leaders' he said, ' must stop shielding each other from criticism.'

Whether Annan's words had any influence on Thabo Mbeki we'll never know but it was slightly encouraging to hear Thabo Mbeki say this week that elections in Zimbabwe must be free and fair and 'acceptable by all the people' I say 'slightly' encouraging because it seems curious that it was Thabo Mbeki's government who declared Zimbabwe's recent elections 'free and fair' despite all the evidence to the contrary. What has happened since then to alter South Africa's perception of 'free and fair'? Could it possibly be the presence of thousands of desperate Zimbabweans crossing the border every day and putting huge pressure on South Africa's social services, or perhaps there are other pressures on the South African President? South Africa has its has own elections coming up and the South African constitution does not allow Mbeki to stand for a third term. Perhaps Thabo Mbeki like Tony Blair before him is worried about his legacy? At least Blair can justifiably claim that peace in Northern Ireland was a successful legacy. But time is running out for Thabo Mbeki and his shameful near-silent diplomacy. While he continues to shield Robert Mugabe from the world's condemnation, Zimbabwe continues on its downward spiral into darkness and despair.

Could any human being with a conscience claim that as a successful legacy?

Ndini shamwari yenyu. PH