ZIMBABWE - LETTER FROM THE DIASPORA !

2nd February 2008

Dear Friends.

Is Zimbabwe the next Kenya? asks a correspondent in this week's Financial Gazette published in Harare yesterday, Thursday 31.01.08.

With just fifty-six days to go until Zimbabwe's own elections, it is a question that desperately needs to be asked - if only to make us all fully aware of the dangers that lie ahead for Zimbabwe. We know that Mugabe's sole motive is to remain in power at all costs but it is hard to see how exactly he or the ruling party would benefit from the total breakdown of trust between ethnic communities and the ensuing violence that Kenya has experienced following rigged elections. But we also know that anything is possible, given the meglomania of the ruling party and its leader.

This morning comes the news that the UN Secretary General is himself flying to Kenya to support Kofi Annan in his efforts to bring the two warring sides together. The list of African luminaries in the country reads like an African Who's Who; with such pressure on the Kenyan leaders there must surely be a solution? If all these VIP's leave the country with no agreement in place,' Kenya will be set on a slippery slope towards a full-scale civil war' (Sam Akaki). The latest figures show that some 850 people have died already and hundreds of thousands are internally displaced. There has been a marked decline in the killings while the negotiations are underway and Kenya holds its breath awaiting the outcome of the talks. Kibaki and Odinga hold their country's future in their hands; the question is will they have the vision, the patriotism to put Kenya first before their own personal ambitions and pride?

How can we prevent this catastrophe happening in our own country when we know that all the rigging mechanisms for our own elections are already in place? In addition, the collapse of the Zimbabwean economy and the resulting poverty and desperation of the population make the likelihood of violent inter-ethnic clashes even stronger. While western commentators continue to describe Kenya's collapse as ethnic in origin, the truth is that the root of the problem lies in the political stalemate brought about by fraudulent election results. Sam Akaki, quoted earlier, the Director of Democratic Institutions for Poverty Reduction in Africa stated this very clearly in a Letter to The Guardian on 30.01.08 when he said, ' The only long-term solution lies in establishing who actually won the elections. This can only be achieved through fresh elections administered by an independent election commission and supervised by international observers. It is only then the violence will stop.'

We know that Mugabe will do nothing to prevent an outbreak of violence in Zimbabwe; on the contrary all his actions through his surrogate police and assorted thugs make the prospect of present and future violence a certainty.

One thing that the democratic forces in Zimbabwe and in the diaspora could do without delay is to warn the world that the very same conditions that provoked the violence in Kenya already exist in Zimbabwe. Africa and the world should be told, not once but repeatedly of the steps that Mugabe has already put in place to ensure Zanu PF's victory. There is a partisan Electoral Commission, the constitutional boundaries have been redrawn to the advantage of the ruling party and the Electoral roll is full of names of long dead voters. In addition, there is already widespread intimidation of anyone suspected of supporting the opposition. Chiefs in the rural areas have been inspanned to ensure their subjects vote the 'right' way and in an act of breathtaking inhumanity, even flood victims and near-starving people have been denied government support if they are believed to be MDC supporters. Democratic forces must make the world aware of these facts now.

If - or when – widespread post-election violence erupts in Zimbabwe, it will not come out of the blue; it will be an explosion of anger and the burning injustice of yet another stolen election.The words of a newly appointed UN Peace Messenger, one George Clooney, are relevant here, 'You hope that somehow…if you just shine a really bright light on these things it's harder to get away with it.'

Yours in the struggle. PH