ZIMBABWE - LETTER FROM THE DIASPORA !

19th September 2008.

Dear Friends,

Monday, September 15th 2008 was described in the papers here as 'Manic Monday' but it had nothing to do with what was happening in Harare! It was the day that Wall Street appeared to be collapsing under the weight of failing banks. That story took up the front pages and was the headline on all the News broadcasts. However, Zimbabwe had its fair share of news coverage and the evening bulletins showed Mugabe ranting on in the same old way as if nothing had changed. Maybe it was 'Manic Monday' after all, I thought as I watched the Old Man draped over the lectern, rambling on like King Lear in his dotage. It was profoundly embarrassing and when Mugabe launched into his blatantly racist comments about the Americans and the British Morgan Tsvangirai covered his face with his hand. Those very Americans and Brits are after all the ones who will be called on to rescue Zimbabwe's near moribund economy; only Mugabe is arrogant enough to insult the very people whose money he needs so badly.

It was a not a good beginning and as the week went on there was even less to be hopeful about. If any of us had thought that Mugabe might show at least a little humility at this key moment in Zimbabwean history then 'Manic Monday' showed how wrong we were. Publicly anyway the Old Man was totally unrepentant; it was Morgan Tsvangirai in a statesmanlike address who cleverly reminded Mugabe of his own words at Independence, "If you were my enemy yesterday, today we are bound by the same patriotic duty and destiny." All weekend, there had been the fear that the Old Man would not even turn up for the signing ceremony but there he was on Monday, large as life. Despite his public posturing the mere fact that he had sat down and negotiated with his mortal enemy shows clearly that the Old Man recognises, albeit with profound reluctance, that he has no choice but to share power. He knows that he lost the March elections, he admitted as much when speaking to top Zanu PF officials: "If only we had not blundered in the March elections...we wouldn't be facing this humiliation now...This is what we have to deal with." Those words do not suggest to me that the Old Man has lost touch with political reality. My own view is that he knows very well that his days are numbered but he will manage his going to suit himself and he will certainly not do anything to assist the 'enemy within and (now) well embedded' as Nathaniel Manheru described the MDC in a leader article over the weekend. Mugabe needs this Agreement to work. He is counting on Morgan Tsvangirai to get the foreign donors on board to rescue the economy and feed the near-starving population.

The first two Articles in the Agreement deal with sanctions and land, Mugabe's two pet obsessions. Indeed, Mugabe's hand is evident throughout the Agreement, like an iron fist inside the velvet glove of Mbeki's 'quiet diplomacy'. The reality that Zimbabweans and the world have to accept is that Mugabe is still there and all the carping criticism of the Agreement cannot change that fact; as a UK columnist had commented earlier, 'Jeer and boo as much as you like, he's still there.' The Agreement is cumbersome, vague and ambiguous and omits crucial issues. Without doubt Zanu PF and Mugabe will do their level best to derail and delay its implementation every step of the way. Five days after the signing the country still has no cabinet and today, Friday, we hear that six hours of talks between the principals have failed to get agreement on the allocation of cabinet posts. Hardly surprising really after Mugabe had told his top party officials, " We remain in the driving seat. We will not tolerate any nonsense from our new partners." It is very clear that Mugabe's concept of partnership involves only 'junior' partners to his own permanently senior position. It was Morgan Tsvangirai who identified the first priority of the new government as feeding the people.

And there are a few hopeful signs. The Red Cross is immediately resuming food aid; the police are beginning to act like the true guardians of law and order again but only in some areas. If reports are to be believed war vets and Youth Militia are no longer getting priority in food queues and although it sounds unbelievable, it is reported that the service chiefs have acknowledged Tsvangirai as Prime Minister, worthy of equal respect with Mugabe. MDC T shirts are even being openly worn in some areas.

The biggest problem as I see it is changing the political culture in the country as reflected in the state-controlled media. That is going to take the repeal of legislation: AIPA and POSA and the Broadcasting Act and that needs parliament to reconvene. Once the Agreement is amended into law - by Mugabe as president - with Constitutional Amendemnt No 19, parliament can begin work straight away. Robert Mugabe will of course delay that as long as he can and five days after the signing of the Agreement Zimbabwe still has no functioning government. There are in fact two opposing centres of power and who knows what games the various internal players are up to within parties and factions in the struggle for powerful positions and all the perks involved. Those cynics within and outside the country who say the Agreement will never work may well be proved right. No thinking person can be unaware of the pitfalls that lie ahead but the cynics should ask themselves, what alternative was there for a country and people so near the edge of annihilation? Cynicism cannot feed the children or give them hope for a better future.

Yours in the (continuing) struggle. PH.